Market and channel data validation

Wasn't AI supposed to get cheaper over time? Why is it getting more expensive?

The way things are going, it looks like AI usage is just going to cost more and more for the foreseeable future. So why would we keep spending more tokens if they're getting more expensive?

And what did we get wrong here? Well, the truth is, if you control for capabilities, AI is getting cheaper.

For example, Google's Gemma 4 model is incredibly cheap, and it's as capable as any of the frontier models were a year ago. So if you're okay sticking with the capabilities of the frontier models today, then yes, you can expect those capabilities to get cheaper over time.

Problem, of course, is that 6 months from now, those capabilities aren't gonna be enough. If your competitors are using the latest models and you're not, you're just not gonna be able to keep up.

But wait, I thought AI was supposed to make everything cheaper and more efficient. If I'm spending more and more on tokens, how do the economics work out?...

or this to make sense, the tokens have to be more cost efficient than payroll. Maybe our output has to be something like three times what it is now.

But of course, if all companies are becoming more efficient, or at least those that are staying competitive are, then what you can charge for the same output is also going to go down. So in reality, your output probably needs to go up by four to eight times in the next one to two years with the same payroll.

And of course, I'm just referring to work that can be done on a computer. Plumbers don't need to increase their output by eight times.

But that just addresses the supply side. Where does all that demand come from?

How are you going to get four to eight times as many customers? Well, that part's actually pretty simple.

Most of your competitors aren't going to do this. They're not going to stay competitive.

Their customers become your customers, and a smaller and smaller group of companies eat up more and more of the market share. Now what we do as a society as result is beyond me, but as a business owner, I recommend keeping up.

If you want to grow your business or your personal brand, you have to be on YouTube. Look at these mind boggling stats.

According to Similarweb, YouTube get 29.6 billion monthly visits with 1.67 billion unique users. Interestingly, YouTube get 77% of the traffic from desktop.

Males make up 61% of the traffic and the age group on YouTube is really mixed across the board. The most popular video that's ever been on YouTube is Baby Shark.

They've amassed a massive 16 billion views. YouTube is also the second biggest search engine in the world.

More people go and search on YouTube for answers that they're looking for than actually go on Bing. YouTube advertising runs through Google Ads and it's so powerful and it's so easy and still is so cheap.

If you're a company or brand that's looking to grow, you really have to start investing in YouTube today. Keep on following us for more daily content.

These are the most popular websites in South Africa. According to Similarweb, the most popular website in South Africa is still Google.

They get an estimated 570 million monthly visits and have 27 million unique users. The second most popular website in South Africa is YouTube.

They get an estimated 164 million visits from 11 million unique users. The third most popular website is Facebook.

They get 94 million monthly visits with 10 million monthly unique users. Coming in at number four is the new kid on the block, ChatGPT.

They get 54.8 million monthly visits and they have 3.7 million unique monthly users. Coming in at No.

5 is Hollywood bets. According to Similarweb, they have 42 million monthly visits to their website and have 2.69 million monthly unique users.

To me, these figures are really an eye opener. If we know the size of the population and we take a look at the most two popular websites, Google and YouTube, that is still a huge opportunity for people to advertise to these people with Google Ads, YouTube ads, and obviously to work on your SEO...

Currently, South Africa has a huge love affair with gambling. Last week a study came out that showed 54 and a half percent of South African household entertainment spending is allocated to gambling.

Now what I wanna show you is that this data that Stats South Africa has brought out is very closely related to the data that I've seen on Google search and website traffic for the biggest gambling sites in South Africa. Take a look at this.

According to Adrift's, the most searched term in South Africa is betway logging. There are 15 million monthly searches on Google for that term.

The next most popular term is betway itself. There are 13 million monthly searches for that term.

As we go down the list slightly, Hollywood Bets comes in. There are 12 million monthly searches for the word Hollywood Bets login to 11 million monthly searches for the word Hollywood bets by itself.

You can see that there are other betting related search terms that are very high up that list. This just shows how many people are actually searching on Google for these betting related terms...

popular with monthly visits. Now what I'm trying to show you from this exercise is that very often just by looking at Google searches and website visits, you can see actually what is happening in reality and society.